Only Trump beats Biden — DeSantis and Haley would lose: Poll

Former President Donald Trump continues to maintain a 2-to-1 polling lead over chief rival Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) and is the only Republican who would beat President Joe Biden, according to a new national poll released Tuesday morning.

In the Emerson College survey, Trump would topple Biden if the election were held right now, 46%-42%, which is just outside the margin of error of 2.9%.

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But Biden would beat DeSantis, 44%-40%, and former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley, 40%-37%.

What’s more, Trump leads DeSantis in GOP polling. In a Republican primary, it’s Trump at 55%, DeSantis at 25%, former Vice President Mike Pence at 8%, and Haley at 5%.

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From the poll release just issued:

  • “In the 2024 Republican Primary, President Donald Trump continues to hold 55% of the vote. This number reflects his standing in the January Emerson poll, as well as the June 2022 Emerson poll. A quarter of Republican primary voters (25%) support Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis for the GOP nomination, a four point decrease since last month when he held 29% support. Former Vice President Mike Pence holds 8%, and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley holds 5%. Both Pence and Haley have increased their support by two percentage points since last month.”
  • [Spencer Kimball, the executive director of Emerson College Polling] said: “Trump’s base consists of voters whose highest degree of education is high school or less, among whom 72% support, decreasing to 45% among those with a college degree, and 42% of those with a postgraduate degree, among which he trails DeSantis by two points.”
  • “The Florida governor’s strength is not only seen among this higher educated GOP block, but also among voters over 65, where he leads Trump 43% to 39%. He has gained 13 points among Midwestern voters, now only trailing Trump by eight points, compared to 32 points in January, presenting a potential issue for Trump as the Republicans look to Iowa as first in the nation,” Kimball said.

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  • “On a ballot of exclusively individuals who have announced their candidacy, 79% of respondents would support Donald Trump, 18% Nikki Haley, and 4% Vivek Ramaswamy.”
  • According to Kimball, “Of those who support DeSantis on the preliminary ballot, 62% support Trump on the declared ballot and 29% support Haley.”
  • “Despite increased support within the Democratic Party, President Biden trails former President Trump in a hypothetical 2024 Presidential match-up, 42% to 46%; 7% would support someone else and 5% are undecided. This is similar to last month, when he trailed 41% to 44%. Against Governor DeSantis, Biden leads 44% to 40%; 9% would support someone else and 8% are undecided. Similarly, against Nikki Haley, the president leads 40% to 37%; while 12% would support someone else and 11% are undecided.”

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