Prigozhin May Be Eyeing Challenge to Putin in 2024

Yevgeny Prigozhin, founder of the Wagner Group, a paramilitary outfit involved in the fighting in the city of Bakhmut, eastern Ukraine, may be eyeing a challenge to Russian President Vladimir Putin in the 2024 presidential elections, a think tank has said.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), based in Washington, D.C., made the assessment in its latest update on the conflict. The think tank cited a March 14 interview, published by his own Internet News Agency, in which Prigozhin sat down with Russian journalists from Russia Today, RIA Novosti and his agency.

Prigozhin stepped out of the shadows in September 2022 and announced that he had founded the Wagner Group in 2014. Ever since, his potential political ambitions have been the topic of intense speculation. Prigozhin, however, has previously shut down claims that he has political ambitions in Russia.

"Prigozhin may be using his influence in Russia's mainstream media landscape to present himself as a contender in Russia's 2024 presidential elections," the think tank said. It added that the interview was noteworthy for its "unique format."

"During the interview, Prigozhin seemed to mimic the way that Russian President Vladimir Putin films his choreographed public meetings," the ISW said. The think tank added that this could have been done intentionally to either "mock Putin quietly" or to "suggest subtly that Prigozhin could become Russian president like Putin."

According to the ISW, the choreography and staging of Prigozhin's interview places him in the camera's frame at his desk across from his audience. Putin's filmed meetings and photo ops usually do it in the same way.

"This film style is unusual for Prigozhin, as Prigozhin's public video statements typically do not employ such a sterile format; Prigozhin has usually opted to film himself with wide shots on battlefields or in dynamic but staged videos that strive to appear candid and gritty," the think tank said.

In this interview, Prigozhin reiterated his previous arguments about "the need to instill hardline ideology in Russian fighters." He hinted that his Wagner Group is being deliberately deprived of artillery ammunition by the Russian Ministry of Defense.

The ISW said that Prigozhin may seek to parody Putin's cinematography style as part of a "larger trolling campaign to attack the Kremlin or draw tacit parallels between Prigozhin and the office of the Russian presidency."

"Prigozhin has previously insinuated that he could replace Putin. Prigozhin made a sarcastic announcement on March 11 that he will run for the Ukrainian presidency in 2024—a statement that a prominent Kremlin-linked Russian scholar argued implicitly promoted a narrative that Prigozhin would run in Russia's presidential elections which are also scheduled for 2024," the think tank added.

Joana de Deus Pereira is senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), a British think tank. She previously told Newsweek that, at the beginning of the war, a largely commercial relationship existed between the Kremlin and Wagner Group. The paramilitary outfit was initially seen as a "very useful tool" and as "an instrument of war," de Deus Pereira said.

When Prigozhin finally admitted he was the financial sponsor of the Wagner Group, "in his speech, you can see a clear building of a political character," de Deus Pereira said. "Now, Prigozhin has become much more dangerous in terms of the political persona he wants to be."

The relationship between Prigozhin and the Kremlin began to disintegrate when the businessman began presenting himself as both a military solution for the conflict and a political one.

There has been a "crescendo" of publicity since Prigozhin announced himself to be the founder of the Wagner Group, de Deus Pereira said.

According to de Deus Pereira, Prigozhin sees himself as a defense minister or "someone with a high profile inside the Kremlin, at least visible and respectful enough to be rewarded for what he has been doing for the country."

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