On the surface, diplomatic attempts to resolve the Ukraine crisis don’t look promising.
Approximately 130,000 Russian troops, not to mention Su-35 fighter aircraft, tanks, armored personnel carriers, air defense units, and ballistic missiles, are stationed on three separate parts of Ukraine’s border. Russian President Vladimir Putin has all but dismissed U.S. negotiating proposals as a slap in the face, claiming Russia’s core security concerns were “ignored.” The United States, meanwhile, is deploying 3,000 troops to shore up NATO’s eastern flank.
Yet a war in Europe can still be avoided.
Putin may be displeased, but he says he wants discussions to continue. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov also stated that there were “grains of rationality” in the U.S. proposal, a backhanded compliment that suggests a face-saving arrangement could still be reached.
Courtesy of El Pais, a Spanish newspaper, we now know some of the elements included in the U.S. and NATO proposals. And it’s not all fire and brimstone, as Putin implies. There are actually concrete ideas next to the usual complaints about Russia’s destabilizing behavior, some of which Russia might be amenable to exploring. NATO, for example, offers the full restoration of NATO-Russia relations, as well as the mutual reopening of offices, as a basis for discussion. The organization has proposed the formation of an emergency hotline and broader consultations on security matters involving cyberspace and space.
The list of U.S. proposals is more comprehensive. In Ukraine, specifically, Washington is demanding “conditions-based reciprocal transparency measures” with the Russians, including a commitment by both parties to refrain from deploying ground-launched missiles and permanent combat forces in Ukraine. The U.S. is also willing, according to the leaked document, to allow Russian officials to inspect NATO antimissile facilities in Romania and Bulgaria in exchange for NATO inspections at two Russian missile bases of the alliance’s choice. The purpose of the inspections would be to reassure Moscow that the Aegis systems used to shoot down incoming missiles can’t be turned into an offensive weapon system against Russia.
Whether Moscow will bite on any of these proposals, only time will tell.
Still, Putin has left dialogue on the table. Despite the popular narrative that he is an autocrat bent on conquest, Putin likes to preserve his options and thus maximum flexibility. Putin would seemingly prefer to achieve what he wants diplomatically instead of risking an invasion that sees Russia’s economy hemmed in by financial sanctions, microchip shortages, and import restrictions.
Diplomacy is about arriving at a mutually acceptable consensus. Russia will have to drop its demands for a NATO pullback to pre-1997 levels and modify its insistence that the alliance permanently close the door to new members (even if some of us would believe such a NATO commitment has merit). The U.S. and NATO, however, will need to realize that Ukraine is not suitable for membership in the alliance, doesn’t strengthen the security of NATO member states, and is the reddest of red lines for Russia. Pretending otherwise merely increases the chance of a war erupting — one that was entirely avoidable.
But if both sides can forge consensus, peace may prevail.
Daniel DePetris (@DanDePetris) is a contributor to the Washington Examiner’s Beltway Confidential blog. His opinions are his own.
