School makes kids commit suicide. Whenever kids are in school, they commit suicide. When you cancel school (snow days, COVID, summer, holidays), they stop committing so much suicide. School is a suicide-generating institution. nber.org/papers/w30795
People who never read "Lord of the Flies" are like "BUT HOW!?!?!?"
and the rest of us are like
did you miss the part where Lord of the Flies is just an allegory for English boarding schools????
i wonder what will happen to children when we warehouse them together in competitive environments with approximately 1 adult supervisor per 20 to 30 kids, and that supervisor is not selected on the basis of moral wisdom or love of the child but ability to confer facts
and also, we cluster the kids by age group, ensuring that hierarchies are purely determined by personality-based aggressiveness, without any age-related offsetting.
there's a graph.
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In a new paper at @DemographicRes , I and some brilliant coauthors use two totally different measures to measure Amish fertility and show that it is likely in decline.
The blue line is actual registry data on Amish families, the red line is a broad catchment of all Pennsylvania Dutch-speakers. Either is a good proxy for "Amish people generally," and for both, "line go down."
However, the brown and yellow lines show just possibly-Amish ACS households without phones. See, some Amish people do have phones. Some Amish sects allow them in some circumstances. We can see that the no-phone sects do not evince a pattern of falling fertility.
western Med Punics (think Carthaginians) were basically completely genetically separated from Levantine Punics.
this kind of casts into doubt some of the argument that Rome's unique advantage was its ability to incorporate disparate peoples via citizenship since this genetic signature is just gonzo, Punics clearly a multiethnic identity despite strong cultural similarity
note this doesn't mean Levantine origin was a lie: if you compare Levantine Punics, Bronze Age Sardinia, and Sardinian Punics, it sure looks like there was geneflow from the Levantine Punic group into Sardinia, and one Sardinian Punic actually has the Levantine-typical type!
it seems to me many people did not realize that large sections of Decker's post appears to be quotes from founding fathers. i'm not sure how intentional this was on his part but it would have been hilarious watching courts try to be like "quoting the declaration of independence is hate speech"
also i will just lay down a marker:
if any election does not occur on its regularly scheduled day, or if government policies cause voter participation to fall more than 30% as a share of the adult population vs. the average of the last 10 elections
i think that's the line
i just think we should all say these things in public
if a leader suspends elections or widely disenfranchises the electorate, that's it. the system is over, it's time for the second amendment to play its part.
The primary use of artificial wombs if they become available will not be by women to free themselves of biological burdens and thus attain liberation, but rather will be by men to free themselves of relational burdens and thus eliminate the need for decent treatment of partners.
Yes, there are lots of men who would like to have children and happily hire nannies for them 24/7. I regret to inform you this is indeed A Type of Guy.
1) If it's a manufacturing process it won't say prohibitively expensive 2) Rich men whom nobody will tolerate as a spouse already use adoption and surrogacy to do this, but artificial wombs will remove a key friction 3) Yes, the early versions will be for preemies. Look a step ahead.
We should make seniors pay full freight on property taxes.
The relationship between too-low property taxes and bad demographic outcomes is not subtle. The states with low property tax rates have MUCH larger gaps between fertility preferences and outcomes than states with other kinds of low taxes.
Tax carveouts for seniors are tax hikes on parents in the trenches raising kids.
Property tax cuts are tax hikes on workers.
Healthy societies reward work and family formation, they don't provide bonus subsidies for 25 years of leisure.