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Crémieux Profile picture
@cremieuxrecueil
Jun 1 • 8 tweets • 4 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
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American military veterans have a suicide problem.

Some have theorized the reason is deployment-related trauma.

Leveraging the random assignment of new soldiers to units with different deployment cycles, Bruhn et al. found that was wrong.

Deployment did not increase suicides. Image
Looking only at violent deployments (ones with peer casualties), there aren't noncombat mortality effects either.

What explains veteran suicide rates? Image
The reason seems to be that the proposition is wrong: veterans do not have increased suicide risk.

This may seem surprising, but it's not. Their suicide rates are elevated over the general population because most of them are young White men. That group has a suicide issue. Image
There are good and bad parts to this observation.

On the one hand, it means that there is not selection of suicidal people into the military.

On the other, demographic selection makes this problem into one that agencies like the VA will probably not be able to fix on their own
because it's not a soldier problem, it's a young White male problem.

I don't know how this can be fixed, but presumably tackling opiate use would help.

Soliman (2022) found that DEA crackdowns on overprescribing pharmacies resulted in fewer local suicide deaths. Image
Soliman also found that sanctioning specific doctors affected opioid-related mortality more generally without impacting suicide rates. Effects were generally larger for males than females and they were larger for people aged 30-49 than those aged 15-29 or 85+. No race data.
Kennedy-Hendricks et al. found that Florida's pill mill crackdown reduced opioid overdose mortality considerably.

Their supplement contained details on the characteristics of the people who died from opioid overdoses, but I wasn't able to access it.

Regardless, this problem can Image
probably be helped to some degree.

Sources:

nber.org/papers/w30622

fivethirtyeight.com/features/suici…

papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…

ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/full/10.21…

More:

bfi.uchicago.edu/insight/resear…

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More from @cremieuxrecueil

Crémieux Profile picture
Jun 2
Psychosis greatly elevates the odds someone commits a homicide.

This is especially true for the first episode of psychosis, in which the homicide rate is 14.45 times greater than after treatment.

We have ample data that shows treatment works. Image
Herttua et al. found that when people were on their antipsychotic meds, they were 40% less likely to be suspected of a violent crime. Image
Sariaslan et al. found that when people were prescribed antipsychotic, their risk of crime perpetration was reduced by 33-50%. Image
Read 7 tweets
Crémieux Profile picture
May 31
Why do people who live in cities tend to have liberal immigration attitudes?

Using data from Swiss movers, it appears the answer is selection!

People who held those attitudes up to seven years prior to moving didn't change up to six years later.

And this replicates! Image
Using data on Germans who moved to neighborhoods in the top quartile of foreign population, the same finding cropped up again: the people who live in those places held their attitudes long before they moved. Image
Later work showed this held for other attitudes as well, and it worked out for people who moved to or from cities.

People who move do not become more or less likely to want to join the EU or support the radical right, nor do their immigration attitudes shift. Image
Read 4 tweets
Crémieux Profile picture
May 31
TL;DR: nice, careful paper in desperate need of a sibling control to address residual confounding.

It doesn't seem they'd have a large enough sample size or enough variation in place of birth in sibling pairs unless they could get Scandinavian register or American Census data.
Other sorting work looks at things like "Do peoples attitudes to immigrants systematically differ after they move to a city?"

Those can deal with residual confounding. But we have no prior information about kids when we're analyzing the effects of their birthplaces.
Most of the confounding in sorting designs is still familial confounding because the most common type of relevant confounding is genetic, not attributable to family environmental effects.

So you can handle it by observing a person prior to, say, a move across neighborhoods.
Read 7 tweets
Crémieux Profile picture
May 31
There are intelligence differences between groups, but here's something useful: because of universal screening programs, we know Hispanics are disproportionately underidentified for entry into gifted programs.

Many gifted students of all races aren't identified.

Why? Simple! Image
Teachers and parents are biased.

Smart kids tend to have smart parents. Those parents tend to be more involved in their kids' educations, and they push their kids into gifted programs and good schools. But this isn't universal and it's augmented by parents' socioeconomic status.
Teachers notice very smart kids, but there's some bias. For example, if a very smart kid comes from a family that doesn't speak English, that kid's English experience may be limited, making them seem less intelligent than they are.

Or, think about the correlation between IQ and
Read 10 tweets
Crémieux Profile picture
May 31
The EEF (U.K.) and NCEE (U.S.) have strict preregistration and analysis plan requirements for educational interventions they fund: it's hard to cheat when you take their money.

So, what do their results look like?

They find very small effects of educational interventions. Image
They also find that the effects of interventions aren't dependent on the grade levels of the students.

There is not evidence that interventions that happen earlier in childhood are more effective than ones that happen later. Image
The EEF often produces much larger estimates than the NCEE. Why? They fund two trial types: efficacy and effectiveness trials

Efficacy trials let intervention designers test their proposals in idealized scenarios

Effectiveness trials are done in more representative conditions
Read 7 tweets
Crémieux Profile picture
May 28
Is there any obvious way to tell which of these identical twins reared apart was raised by a Nazi and which one was raised by a Jew?

These men are Jack Yufe (left) and Oskar Stöhr (right).

Separated at birth, one of them was a Hitler Youth and the other worked on the kibbutz. Image
As Tom Bouchard put it, "Jack and Oskar clearly have the greatest differences in background I have ever seen among identical twins reared apart."

Different languages, religions, and styles of parenting!

Their story was so extraordinary that someone made a film about it in 1996. Image
The boys' strict Catholic mother Liesel and Russian Jewish father Josef met on a boat to Trinidad where they rapidly fell in love.

They got married, had a daughter, and two years later, they had the twins.

Six months later, Liesel ended the marriage.
Read 17 tweets

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