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Sorry, dollar bears. Whether you like it or not, the USD isn’t going anywhere fast.

Darren Beattie explains:

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The full, enlightening article is here:

Sorry Zerohedge: For Better or Worse, US Dollar Will Remain the King of Currencies

Guest Post by Jeremiah Jackson, Ph.D.

The U.S. dollar will someday lose its status as the global reserve currency, but it is delusional to think that this will happen on a timescale short enough to affect domestic politics.

Those who anticipate a collapse of the dollar often subscribe to an “imperial” theory of currency zones. They argue that the U.S. dollar is held by other countries because the U.S. military implicitly (and perhaps occasionally explicitly) threatens foreign banks or governments: “If you don’t use our currency, we will give you the Qaddafi treatment.” The people who hold this view essentially believe that military power underlies U.S. dollar (USD) hegemony and that our allegedly deteriorating military capabilities and recent losses portend a wider depreciation of the dollar.

As the conflict in Ukraine suggests, this view is obviously false on a short time horizon. First, the premise is probably false: the U.S. remains the world’s preeminent military hyperpower. Russia cannot project power more than a few hundred kilometers outside of its borders. China’s ongoing demographic crisis rules out a military reconquest of Taiwan in the foreseeable future. Second, for the sake of argument, let us concede that the U.S. military capacity is on a relative decline: the dollar has continued to rise relative to the Euro and the Chinese renminbi even after the U.S.’s ignominious withdrawal from Afghanistan. The U.S.’s attempts to remake the Middle East are a clear signal of imperial insanity if ever there was one, but the USD has continued to appreciate against its competitor currencies. But how does this argument hold up when projected into the longer time horizon, to, say, 2030 or 2050?

Read the full thing, but we must warn you, it is cognitively challenging. Not for the lightweights out there.


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